Management Lab

What trade management actually paid, per setup and per canonical day shape. Every historical detector hit enters at its fire bar’s close and replays the rest of the session under all 720 combinations of stop, target, breakeven, trail, scale-out, and re-entry — 9,652 hits simulated. This is what past setups rewarded, not a promise about the next one.

How to read it

  • R is risk-multiple — results assume you size positions by fixed risk per trade, so a +0.07R mean compounds the same regardless of stop width.
  • Time split at 2026-01-01 — a policy is only tagged REC if it ranked top-quartile before the split AND stayed positive on data it never saw (n ≥ 20). Everything else is labeled in-sample.
  • Pessimistic fills — stop fills before target in the same bar, exits at stop/target price, and every round trip pays 1 bp/side friction (a re-entry pays it twice). Real fills with commissions run thinner than these numbers.
  • Day-shape cuts come in two kinds — “final shape” groups by what the day ended up being (descriptive: you couldn’t have known at entry); “developing shape” groups by the label at the fire bar (actionable — the same read the finder shows live).

Trend from the open

fires bars 3–6 (first 30 minutes) — too early in the session for a day-shape read, so only the full-day cut is shown

All days

n 2525 (1706 train / 819 test)

raw profile: ran 0.3×ATR for / 0.3×ATR against (medians) · median net 2 bp to close

  • REC0.25×ATR stop · hold to close · trail swing · re-enter oncetrain +0.029R · 40% win · n1706 — test +0.054R · 41% win · n819
  • REC0.25×ATR stop · 3R target · trail swing · re-enter oncetrain +0.063R · 41% win · n1706 — test +0.050R · 41% win · n819
  • REC0.5×ATR stop · hold to close · trail swing · re-enter oncetrain +0.020R · 42% win · n1706 — test +0.049R · 44% win · n819

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 0.5×ATR +0.042Rtarget: close +0.030Rbreakeven: never +0.025Rtrail: none +0.026Rscale-out: none +0.026Rre-entry: once +0.026R

bull-drive

n 724 (502 train / 222 test)

raw profile: ran 0.35×ATR for / 0.29×ATR against (medians) · median net 28 bp to close

  • REC0.25×ATR stop · hold to close · re-enter oncetrain +0.133R · 42% win · n502 — test +0.478R · 48% win · n222
  • REC0.25×ATR stop · hold to close · trail 1atr · re-enter oncetrain +0.298R · 43% win · n502 — test +0.465R · 48% win · n222

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 0.5×ATR +0.183Rtarget: close +0.147Rbreakeven: never +0.130Rtrail: none +0.152Rscale-out: none +0.133Rre-entry: once +0.131R

bear-drive

n 705 (448 train / 257 test)

raw profile: ran 0.33×ATR for / 0.27×ATR against (medians) · median net 21 bp to close

  • REC0.25×ATR stop · hold to close · re-enter oncetrain +0.345R · 49% win · n448 — test +0.282R · 44% win · n257
  • REC0.25×ATR stop · hold to close · trail 1atr · re-enter oncetrain +0.333R · 49% win · n448 — test +0.270R · 43% win · n257

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 0.5×ATR +0.034Rtarget: close +0.045Rbreakeven: never +0.029Rtrail: none +0.031Rscale-out: none +0.033Rre-entry: once +0.033R

bull-grind

n 383 (270 train / 113 test)

raw profile: ran 0.26×ATR for / 0.34×ATR against (medians) · median net -12 bp to close

  • REC0.25×ATR stop · 1R target · BE after +0.5Rtrain -0.045R · 33% win · n270 — test +0.061R · 36% win · n113
  • REC0.25×ATR stop · 1R target · BE after +0.5R · half off +1Rtrain -0.045R · 33% win · n270 — test +0.061R · 36% win · n113

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 1.5×ATR -0.032Rtarget: 1R -0.032Rbreakeven: 0.5R -0.049Rtrail: swing -0.021Rscale-out: half1R -0.056Rre-entry: never -0.054R

bear-fade

n 359 (257 train / 102 test)

raw profile: ran 0.27×ATR for / 0.36×ATR against (medians) · median net -26 bp to close

  • REC0.25×ATR stop · 1R target · BE after +0.5R · trail swingtrain +0.047R · 40% win · n257 — test +0.003R · 31% win · n102
  • REC0.25×ATR stop · 1R target · BE after +0.5R · trail swing · half off +1Rtrain +0.047R · 40% win · n257 — test +0.003R · 31% win · n102

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 1.5×ATR -0.029Rtarget: 1R -0.036Rbreakeven: 0.5R -0.060Rtrail: swing -0.038Rscale-out: half1R -0.058Rre-entry: never -0.058R

bull-fade

n 354 (229 train / 125 test)

raw profile: ran 0.3×ATR for / 0.24×ATR against (medians) · median net 4 bp to close

  • REC0.25×ATR stop · 3R target · BE after +1R · trail swing · re-enter oncetrain +0.265R · 51% win · n229 — test +0.149R · 47% win · n125
  • REC0.25×ATR stop · 3R target · trail swing · re-enter oncetrain +0.262R · 52% win · n229 — test +0.146R · 47% win · n125

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 0.75×ATR +0.019Rtarget: 2R +0.009Rbreakeven: 0.5R +0.006Rtrail: swing +0.042Rscale-out: half1R +0.005Rre-entry: never +0.005R

By the market’s day shape — what SPY was doing that day

Same setups, cut by the index’s canonical shape instead of the symbol’s own — a pullback during a market-wide drive is a different trade than one against the tide.

bull-drive

n 841 (573 train / 268 test)
  • REC0.5×ATR stop · hold to close · trail 1atr · re-enter oncetrain +0.099R · 51% win · n573 — test +0.021R · 49% win · n268
  • REC0.5×ATR stop · hold to close · BE after +1R · trail 1atr · re-enter oncetrain +0.096R · 50% win · n573 — test +0.021R · 48% win · n268

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 1.5×ATR -0.001Rtarget: close -0.025Rbreakeven: 0.5R -0.030Rtrail: none -0.027Rscale-out: none -0.029Rre-entry: once -0.031R

bear-drive

n 665 (455 train / 210 test)
  • REC0.25×ATR stop · 3R target · trail swing · re-enter oncetrain +0.008R · 39% win · n455 — test +0.137R · 43% win · n210
  • REC0.25×ATR stop · 3R target · BE after +1R · trail swing · re-enter oncetrain +0.011R · 38% win · n455 — test +0.134R · 42% win · n210

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 0.25×ATR +0.063Rtarget: close +0.047Rbreakeven: 0.5R +0.039Rtrail: swing +0.053Rscale-out: none +0.043Rre-entry: once +0.039R

bull-fade

n 350 (201 train / 149 test)
  • REC0.25×ATR stop · 3R target · BE after +1Rtrain +0.154R · 32% win · n201 — test +0.258R · 38% win · n149
  • REC0.25×ATR stop · 3R target · BE after +1R · trail 1atrtrain +0.154R · 32% win · n201 — test +0.258R · 38% win · n149

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 0.5×ATR +0.158Rtarget: 3R +0.121Rbreakeven: never +0.111Rtrail: none +0.115Rscale-out: none +0.112Rre-entry: once +0.111R

bull-grind

n 344 (278 train / 66 test)
  • REC0.25×ATR stop · hold to close · BE after +1R · trail swing · re-enter oncetrain -0.040R · 38% win · n278 — test +0.116R · 39% win · n66
  • REC0.25×ATR stop · hold to close · trail swing · half off +1R · re-enter oncetrain -0.025R · 44% win · n278 — test +0.103R · 45% win · n66

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 0.25×ATR +0.052Rtarget: 1R +0.025Rbreakeven: 1R +0.020Rtrail: swing +0.032Rscale-out: half1R +0.021Rre-entry: once +0.019R

bear-fade

n 325 (199 train / 126 test)
  • REC0.25×ATR stop · 1R target · BE after +0.5R · re-enter oncetrain +0.102R · 50% win · n199 — test +0.099R · 48% win · n126
  • REC0.25×ATR stop · 1R target · BE after +0.5R · half off +1R · re-enter oncetrain +0.102R · 50% win · n199 — test +0.099R · 48% win · n126

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 0.75×ATR +0.032Rtarget: close +0.031Rbreakeven: never +0.030Rtrail: 1atr +0.033Rscale-out: none +0.023Rre-entry: once +0.026R

Pullback

fires mid-session (median bar 48), late enough that the developing day shape is knowable at entry

All days

n 7127 (5711 train / 1416 test)

raw profile: ran 0.14×ATR for / 0.15×ATR against (medians) · median net -2 bp to close

  • REC0.75×ATR stop · 3R target · trail swing · re-enter oncetrain -0.008R · 38% win · n5711 — test +0.005R · 40% win · n1416
  • REC0.75×ATR stop · 3R target · trail swing · half off +1R · re-enter oncetrain -0.008R · 38% win · n5711 — test +0.005R · 40% win · n1416
  • REC0.75×ATR stop · 3R target · BE after +1R · trail swing · re-enter oncetrain -0.008R · 38% win · n5711 — test +0.005R · 40% win · n1416

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 1.5×ATR -0.012Rtarget: 1R -0.024Rbreakeven: 0.5R -0.023Rtrail: swing +0.002Rscale-out: none -0.024Rre-entry: never -0.024R

bull-drive

n 2030 (1621 train / 409 test)

raw profile: ran 0.14×ATR for / 0.13×ATR against (medians) · median net 3 bp to close

  • REC0.25×ATR stop · 1R target · re-enter oncetrain +0.030R · 52% win · n1621 — test +0.041R · 52% win · n409
  • REC0.25×ATR stop · 1R target · half off +1R · re-enter oncetrain +0.030R · 52% win · n1621 — test +0.041R · 52% win · n409

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 0.25×ATR +0.026Rtarget: 1R +0.019Rbreakeven: never +0.020Rtrail: none +0.022Rscale-out: none +0.018Rre-entry: once +0.021R

bear-drive

n 1889 (1505 train / 384 test)

raw profile: ran 0.16×ATR for / 0.15×ATR against (medians) · median net -3 bp to close

  • in-sample0.75×ATR stop · 3R target · trail 1atrtrain +0.018R · 46% win · n1505 — test -0.042R · 43% win · n384
  • in-sample0.75×ATR stop · hold to closetrain +0.018R · 46% win · n1505 — test -0.042R · 43% win · n384

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 0.25×ATR -0.008Rtarget: 1R -0.012Rbreakeven: 0.5R -0.014Rtrail: swing +0.011Rscale-out: half1R -0.014Rre-entry: never -0.012R

bull-grind

n 1276 (1074 train / 202 test)

raw profile: ran 0.14×ATR for / 0.14×ATR against (medians) · median net 1 bp to close

  • REC0.25×ATR stop · 3R target · trail swing · re-enter oncetrain +0.004R · 38% win · n1074 — test +0.042R · 41% win · n202
  • REC0.25×ATR stop · hold to close · trail swing · re-enter oncetrain +0.010R · 38% win · n1074 — test +0.036R · 41% win · n202

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 1.5×ATR -0.016Rtarget: 3R -0.021Rbreakeven: 0.5R -0.024Rtrail: swing +0.002Rscale-out: none -0.023Rre-entry: once -0.025R

bear-fade

n 1031 (828 train / 203 test)

raw profile: ran 0.15×ATR for / 0.16×ATR against (medians) · median net -1 bp to close

  • REC0.5×ATR stop · 2R target · BE after +0.5R · trail swing · re-enter oncetrain -0.010R · 37% win · n828 — test +0.053R · 43% win · n203
  • REC0.5×ATR stop · 3R target · BE after +0.5R · trail swing · re-enter oncetrain -0.008R · 37% win · n828 — test +0.053R · 43% win · n203

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 0.25×ATR +0.034Rtarget: 3R +0.000Rbreakeven: 0.5R +0.002Rtrail: swing +0.036Rscale-out: none -0.001Rre-entry: once +0.000R

bull-fade

n 901 (683 train / 218 test)

raw profile: ran 0.11×ATR for / 0.19×ATR against (medians) · median net -16 bp to close

  • in-sample1.5×ATR stop · 1R target · trail swingtrain -0.020R · 34% win · n683 — test -0.018R · 36% win · n218
  • in-sample1.5×ATR stop · 1R target · trail swing · half off +1Rtrain -0.020R · 34% win · n683 — test -0.018R · 36% win · n218

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 1.5×ATR -0.054Rtarget: 1R -0.138Rbreakeven: 0.5R -0.133Rtrail: swing -0.062Rscale-out: half1R -0.139Rre-entry: never -0.135R

By developing shape at entry — what you could have known

bear-drive

n 1752 (1443 train / 309 test)
  • REC0.75×ATR stop · 1R target · trail swing · re-enter oncetrain -0.005R · 39% win · n1443 — test +0.005R · 39% win · n309
  • REC0.75×ATR stop · 1R target · trail swing · half off +1R · re-enter oncetrain -0.005R · 39% win · n1443 — test +0.005R · 39% win · n309

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 1.5×ATR -0.020Rtarget: 1R -0.027Rbreakeven: 0.5R -0.028Rtrail: swing +0.004Rscale-out: none -0.029Rre-entry: never -0.027R

bull-fade

n 1587 (1218 train / 369 test)
  • REC0.5×ATR stop · 2R target · trail swing · re-enter oncetrain -0.011R · 39% win · n1218 — test +0.018R · 40% win · n369
  • REC0.5×ATR stop · 2R target · trail swing · half off +1R · re-enter oncetrain -0.011R · 39% win · n1218 — test +0.018R · 40% win · n369

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 1.5×ATR -0.011Rtarget: 2R -0.029Rbreakeven: 0.5R -0.028Rtrail: swing +0.002Rscale-out: half1R -0.029Rre-entry: once -0.027R

bull-grind

n 1461 (1171 train / 290 test)
  • in-sample0.75×ATR stop · hold to closetrain +0.013R · 47% win · n1171 — test -0.035R · 48% win · n290
  • in-sample0.75×ATR stop · hold to close · re-enter oncetrain +0.013R · 47% win · n1171 — test -0.035R · 48% win · n290

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 1.5×ATR -0.012Rtarget: 1R -0.019Rbreakeven: 0.5R -0.021Rtrail: swing -0.010Rscale-out: half1R -0.022Rre-entry: never -0.021R

bull-drive

n 1378 (1128 train / 250 test)
  • REC0.75×ATR stop · 1R target · BE after +0.5R · trail swingtrain -0.015R · 36% win · n1128 — test +0.009R · 42% win · n250
  • REC0.75×ATR stop · 1R target · BE after +0.5R · trail swing · half off +1Rtrain -0.015R · 36% win · n1128 — test +0.009R · 42% win · n250

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 1.5×ATR -0.012Rtarget: 3R -0.031Rbreakeven: never -0.034Rtrail: swing +0.000Rscale-out: none -0.032Rre-entry: never -0.032R

bear-fade

n 949 (751 train / 198 test)
  • REC0.5×ATR stop · 2R target · trail swing · re-enter oncetrain -0.015R · 39% win · n751 — test +0.038R · 44% win · n198
  • REC0.5×ATR stop · 3R target · trail swing · re-enter oncetrain -0.013R · 39% win · n751 — test +0.038R · 44% win · n198

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 0.25×ATR +0.029Rtarget: 3R +0.008Rbreakeven: 0.5R +0.007Rtrail: swing +0.019Rscale-out: none +0.006Rre-entry: once +0.008R

By the market’s day shape — what SPY was doing that day

Same setups, cut by the index’s canonical shape instead of the symbol’s own — a pullback during a market-wide drive is a different trade than one against the tide.

bull-drive

n 2429 (1968 train / 461 test)
  • REC0.5×ATR stop · 3R targettrain +0.008R · 50% win · n1968 — test +0.021R · 49% win · n461
  • REC0.5×ATR stop · 3R target · re-enter oncetrain +0.008R · 50% win · n1968 — test +0.021R · 49% win · n461

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 0.75×ATR +0.007Rtarget: close +0.006Rbreakeven: never +0.002Rtrail: swing +0.003Rscale-out: none +0.004Rre-entry: once +0.005R

bear-drive

n 1770 (1531 train / 239 test)
  • in-sample0.75×ATR stop · 3R target · trail 1atrtrain +0.012R · 48% win · n1531 — test -0.073R · 40% win · n239
  • in-sample0.75×ATR stop · hold to close · trail 1atrtrain +0.012R · 48% win · n1531 — test -0.073R · 40% win · n239

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 1.5×ATR -0.024Rtarget: 1R -0.033Rbreakeven: 0.5R -0.044Rtrail: swing +0.003Rscale-out: half1R -0.041Rre-entry: never -0.041R

bull-grind

n 1185 (970 train / 215 test)
  • REC0.25×ATR stop · 2R target · BE after +0.5Rtrain +0.001R · 32% win · n970 — test +0.005R · 33% win · n215
  • REC0.25×ATR stop · 2R target · BE after +0.5R · trail 1atrtrain +0.001R · 32% win · n970 — test +0.005R · 33% win · n215

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 1.5×ATR -0.031Rtarget: 2R -0.041Rbreakeven: 0.5R -0.041Rtrail: swing -0.040Rscale-out: none -0.045Rre-entry: never -0.044R

bear-fade

n 982 (763 train / 219 test)
  • REC0.5×ATR stop · 2R target · trail swingtrain -0.010R · 38% win · n763 — test +0.055R · 41% win · n219
  • REC0.5×ATR stop · 2R target · BE after +0.5R · trail swingtrain -0.011R · 37% win · n763 — test +0.055R · 41% win · n219

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 0.25×ATR -0.007Rtarget: 3R -0.019Rbreakeven: 0.5R -0.020Rtrail: swing +0.035Rscale-out: none -0.021Rre-entry: never -0.020R

bull-fade

n 761 (479 train / 282 test)
  • REC0.75×ATR stop · 1R target · trail swing · re-enter oncetrain -0.035R · 33% win · n479 — test +0.012R · 42% win · n282
  • REC0.75×ATR stop · 1R target · trail swing · half off +1R · re-enter oncetrain -0.035R · 33% win · n479 — test +0.012R · 42% win · n282

best value per dimension (test)

stop: 1.5×ATR -0.014Rtarget: 1R -0.033Rbreakeven: 0.5R -0.033Rtrail: swing +0.005Rscale-out: half1R -0.034Rre-entry: never -0.035R
Setups come from the detector history (trend-from-open, pullback); day shapes from the frozen canon. The finder’s live read of today’s developing shape is on /look-alikes.