Track Record
Every call the look-alike finder would have made on IWM, QQQ, SPY since 2022-01-01, replayed at 10:30 ET and 12:00 ET with the corpus cut to what existed before each date — a 2022 call only ever saw pre-2022 history, so hindsight is structurally impossible. The finder’s outcome stats are descriptive (“what past look-alikes did — not a forecast”); this page scores them anyway, because a public record either builds trust or teaches us something. Whatever the number is, it ships.
Checkpoints
6,754
2022 → 2026
Leaned
22%
pctUp ≥ 60 or ≤ 40; the rest abstain and are counted
Hit rate — clean
49%
270 leans without a loose/generic cap
Hit rate — capped
49%
calls where the finder itself flagged a weak read
The verdict so far
The leans carry no direction edge beyond drift: always leaning up over this period scores 52.9%, and the finder’s leans score 49%. That matches the tail-agreement rig’s finding — the engine’s measurable signal is in shape (how the rest of the day traded), not in sign (which way it closed) — and it is exactly why every outcome panel on this site says “what past look-alikes did — not a forecast.” This page exists to keep that claim checkable in public.
By slice
The honest split to watch: clean reads vs the ones the finder capped as loose or generic. If the caps mean anything, the two columns should diverge. The per-grade rows are the grade calibration: what each letter actually delivered, measured on calls the finder never saw coming.
| slice | checkpoints | leaned | hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| all | 6754 | 22% | 49% (708/1453) |
| clean (uncapped) | 1214 | 22% | 49% (132/270) |
| capped (loose/generic) | 5540 | 21% | 49% (576/1183) |
| at 10:30 ET | 3377 | 21% | 48% (344/720) |
| at 12:00 ET | 3377 | 22% | 50% (364/733) |
| IWM | 2254 | 21% | 46% (212/464) |
| QQQ | 2246 | 23% | 48% (247/511) |
| SPY | 2254 | 21% | 52% (249/478) |
| grade A | 781 | 22% | 46% (80/173) |
| grade B | 2678 | 22% | 47% (276/589) |
| grade C | 2121 | 21% | 50% (220/436) |
| grade D | 1032 | 22% | 52% (116/223) |
| grade F | 142 | 23% | 50% (16/32) |
| 2022 | 1498 | 20% | 46% (139/303) |
| 2023 | 1500 | 21% | 50% (156/313) |
| 2024 | 1512 | 23% | 47% (167/355) |
| 2025 | 1500 | 22% | 52% (172/331) |
| 2026 | 744 | 20% | 49% (74/151) |
Recent calls
The newest checkpoints, exactly as the replay scored them. Every row links to the same query in the time machine so the call can be audited.
| date | cut | best twin | grade | lean | actual | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | 12:00 ET | INTU 2021-09-03 | B | — | -89 bp | abstain |
| 2026-07-01 | 12:00 ET | JNJ 2023-04-11capped | C | — | -60 bp | abstain |
| 2026-07-01 | 12:00 ET | V 2020-02-07 | A | — | -41 bp | abstain |
| 2026-07-01 | 10:30 ET | CVX 2023-04-24capped | B | up (60%) | -73 bp | miss |
| 2026-07-01 | 10:30 ET | ORCL 2024-08-16capped | B | — | -70 bp | abstain |
| 2026-07-01 | 10:30 ET | USDJPY 2017-01-11capped | B | — | -15 bp | abstain |
| 2026-06-30 | 12:00 ET | V 2021-10-19capped | B | up (62%) | +32 bp | hit |
| 2026-06-30 | 12:00 ET | DIA 2020-09-30capped | B | — | +21 bp | abstain |
| 2026-06-30 | 12:00 ET | EEM 2021-10-19capped | B | — | +7 bp | abstain |
| 2026-06-30 | 10:30 ET | SPY 2026-06-26capped | B | — | +14 bp | abstain |
| 2026-06-30 | 10:30 ET | SPY 2021-05-13capped | B | — | +38 bp | abstain |
| 2026-06-30 | 10:30 ET | EURJPY 2023-07-28capped | B | — | +25 bp | abstain |
| 2026-06-29 | 12:00 ET | JNJ 2022-05-10capped | C | — | +84 bp | abstain |
| 2026-06-29 | 12:00 ET | FXI 2022-01-06capped | B | — | +70 bp | abstain |